The Wisdom of Crowds?

Right now, things in the US are rough.  Economically, this country is hurting.  And that’s been the case for going on four years now, with no real end in sight.  Employment remains stuck, growth is falling off, and it looks like we’re in for a self-inflicted double dip recession.  So, going into the 2012 general election, this paints a grim picture for the reelection of the President.  Most Americans think that he’s not going to be reelected, but, he still leads all the potential Republican challengers in a one to one match-up in polls.

So what does this mean?  People are pissed, and rightfully so.  But the fact remains that while Americans aren’t thrilled with the way that President Obama is running the show, they’re still hesitant, probably having to do with eight years of Republican misrule, to hand the reins of power over to another Republican.  That they don’t think he’s going to be reelected illustrates this disillusion, particularly among independents, but it illustrates and even greater disillusion with the Republican field of presidential candidates as it’s emerged over the past few months.  And I think that the bottom line for that is this: the US is, at heart, a country of optimism.  The Republicans have predicated their policies on what we’re not capable of, whereas the President has articulated a far more reassuring picture of a country that’s still capable of greatness.

And while he is on the rocks now, we’re still a long, long way off from the general election.  Polls are indicative.  They’re a snapshot in time of where various groups of voters are at.  But they’re not, by any stretch of the imagination, to be taken as political Gospel.  Time shall tell.  And, in the long run, I think that history will be far more on the side of the President’s reelection than the fickle tribulations of the American people than this poll indicates.

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